Japan's economy and its affect on its fertility rate
Japan's fertility rate is directly related to its economy, where falling well-performing jobs opportunities are preventing young Japanese citizens from marriage and having kids. Although Japan's economy is experiencing a slow but steady increase, as the Anne Allison, a professor of cultural anthropology at Duke University suggests:" The birth rate is down, even the coupling rate is down. And people will say the number-one reason is economic insecurity.” A lack of good jobs may be creating a class of men who don’t marry and have children because they know they can’t afford to. With the rise of global employment instability, 40% of Japan's workforce is irregular, where men could not find a consistent job that could last until they retire, which has been a tradition since the post-war era. According to the Atlantic, between 1995 and 2008, Japan’s number of regular workers decreased by 3.8 million while the number of irregular workers increased by 7.6 million. In Japanese culture, "regular" male employees (men who work in one single job until they retire) are more desirable than irregular employees. Men who don’t have regular jobs are not considered desirable marriage partners; even if a couple wants to get married, and both have irregular jobs, their parents will likely oppose it.
Japanese women, on the other hand, face similar difficulties. Women who work irregular jobs have difficulties supporting her family, due to the inconsistent pay and unpredictable hours. In addition, roughly 70 percent of women quit working after they have their first child and depend on their husband’s salary for some time.
Companies are also damaged by this unstable employment status in Japan. The surge in irregular jobs doesn’t just create problems for the people working those jobs. It’s also led companies to feel that they can treat their regular workers poorly, because those workers feel so lucky to have a job.
Currently, Japan is known as the elderly state with 33.0% of the Japanese population above the age of 60, 25.9% above age 65, and 12.5% above age 75. The unstable economy is contributing to the declining fertility rate and the high percentage of elder population.
This was a super interesting read! I noticed that this trend is visible in many European countries as well. Albania and Iceland are the only European countries that have fertility rates above two. The widening gap between how many of the older generation there is compared to that of the younger generations is dangerous for programs like social security. With a smaller population to cover the pensions of a larger population, it creates a difficult dilemma of having to raise taxes or cut pensions. Do you think this trend of decreasing birth rates will spread to more countries, or as the global economy grows it will increase again?
ReplyDeleteI found this site if you wanted to read more about declining birth rates and economies across Europe:
https://www.nber.org/digest/jul09/w14820.html
This was a really interesting read. The state of Japan kind of reminds me of China. China experienced an overpopulation problem and as a result of that found it necessary to enact the One Child Policy. However, after abolishing the One Child Policy, the country now is facing an increased percentage of elderly citizens and a population of younger people who do not seek to have children quite yet.
ReplyDeleteI also thought this was a pretty fascinating topic to read about! I had one question though: with this falling fertility rate, what will be the conseqences in the next 5, 10, or even 50 years? How will Japan's "elderly state" hold up in today's evolving economy. One thing is that since there are far more elderly, and this population will continue increasing, this will increase the economic and societal needs that they have. For example, healthcare. This older generation will require healthcare (most do), but as they are not working, who will supply this benefit to them? As such, this expensive lifestyle is one that could become problematic and is something that we need to think about as other countries are following Japan's trend such as Britain.
ReplyDeleteSource: https://catholicherald.co.uk/magazine/japan-shows-us-the-worrying-consequences-of-falling-birth-rates/
In my opinion, personal income and financial burden closely associates with the birth rate and the marriage rate because under the financial pressure, people are less likely to form a family and have a children. In traditional Japanese culture, after women got married, they need to stay at home and take care of their parents and children. In reality, many women quit their jobs after the birth of her first child. For those women who received high education and try so hard to find a job in a big company, they are less likely to view that forming a family is their priority and would not want to quit their job as a result of the birth of the child. This lead to a lower marriage rate, thus a lower birth rate. However, if the financial burden is no longer a problem for these people in Japan, the birth rate and the marriage rate, in my opinion, would expect to recover. In addition, for those married couple in Japan, they would not want children because it is difficult for them to balance work and family, especially for women. Overall, I think the economy does play a big role in now-day Japan society. If the Japanese government would want to recover their birth rate to relief the burden from the problem of being an elder state, they need to publish policies to encourage the marriage and the birth of more children. (Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/07/japan-mystery-low-birth-rate/534291/)
ReplyDeleteThis was a very interesting read! It is extremely critical that the government somehow address this issue of the low total fertility rate because it heavily impacts their older populations in the near future. Japanese has been known for their long life spans, as the oldest men and women in the world often reside in Japan. If the Japanese population continues to have long lifespans and the fertility rate, older generations of people in the future will not have younger generations to take care of them physically and financially (through systems similar to social security in America). The Japanese Prime Minister said that this is one of his largest issues that he wants to attack, and he says that right now he plans to raise the retirement age (again). I wanted to ask the question of the effects of this decision for the lesser fortunate (for example, those who suffer health consequences that impede them from working until a raised retirement age).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2018/11/09/japans_never-ending_social_security_reform_110903.html
Fascinating post, Austin! There's no doubt that Japan's declining birth rates will have a tremendous impact on their economy. But I found an article that suggested we look at this issue from a different perspective—that of the existing labor force. With a decline of Japan's workforce, we would see reduced unemployment, raised wages, and increased living standards. And with Japan's massive urban populations, less people would mean less congestion in cities and more affordable urban housing. But this would all come with a risk: pricier labor would raise the prices of Japanese exports and render them less competitive, which could result in fewer exports and a shrinking GDP. The only way for Japan to combat this issue without raising birth rates would be to improve their technology and replace jobs. This would be the only way to maintain their steady economic growth without sacrificing profit and exports, but in my opinion, this option seems highly unlikely to succeed. We can only hope for Japan to raise their fertility rates and restore their place as a global economic powerhouse!
ReplyDeleteSource: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2017/11/17/commentary/japan-commentary/japans-low-birth-rate-makes-economic-sense/#.XGuQyM9KjOQ