Professional Sports Drafts


In class, we learned about the history of the NBA draft system and the #1 overall draft pick, which started with the last place team getting #1, to eventually seven teams competing for this player. In the current day, as another blogger mentioned, the last three teams in the standings have the same chance at getting the #1 draft pick, while this chance decreases as we move up the standings:

Team 1 > 14.0%
Team 2 > 14.0%
Team 3 >14.0%
Team 4 > 12.5%
Team 5 > 10.5%
Team 6 > 9.0%
Team 7 > 7.5%
Team 8 > 6.0%
Team 9 > 4.5%
Team 10 > 3.0%
Team 11 > 2.0%
Team 12 > 1.5%
Team 13 > 1.0%
Team 14 > 0.5%

 How does it work in other sports?

 In the MLB draft, teams are assigned a draft order based on their record in the previous season, as per the Mariners blog page. The first ten draft picks are reserved for the last 10 teams, and cannot be changed. The rest of the picks are also based purely on the standings from the previous season meaning the worse you did, the higher of a draft pick you would've gotten. These can be traded for free agents, which is something better teams may often do (since they'd rather have older talent to compete than a questionable low first round pick). The NFL is identical; everything is based on the standings from the previous season. Last place gets 1st pick, super bowl champion gets 32nd pick (out of 32 teams). 

 In the NHL, the draft system is a little different:

The chances are listed as below. There is a degree of randomness and thrill to the draft system, as the bottom 16 teams all have a legitimate chance at getting one of the 3 top picks. Even within the team's expected draft pick range, there is no guarantee at exactly where they'll draft; there is a big difference between drafting in a 7th pick compared to a 10th pick. 

 Within each league, the system of the draft pick helps to make it balanced. A team that is struggling may spend a few years building a strong and young core of dynamic players that came out of the draft pick (high first rounders can lead the team for over a decade), and this may lead to years of success as the general managers builds around this core with supporting players. The team can gun for a championship, and the fanbase may be able to watch their teams compete in the playoffs for many years. As the core gets older and the team weakens, they will inevitably have to rebuild, trading older players away or as free agents to stockpile draft picks and build a new core. And hence, a never ending cycle where each team has their shot at getting a championship.

 There are ways in which a team can also extend its period of success, much like with the San Jose Sharks, who have made the playoffs in the last 21 of 26 years. Without high draft picks to bring in new talent to their pool of players, the general manager keeps the team competitive and in the running by drawing from the talent pool in other leagues, such as European leagues, and scouting for players in minor leagues (requires good scouts). By also making the right trades and trading low picks for skilled players, they can stay in the running while keeping an influx of talent flowing in.


https://operations.nfl.com/the-players/the-nfl-draft/the-rules-of-the-draft/

https://www.nba.com/nba-draft-lottery-explainer

 https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/6/10/15776034/how-the-2017-draft-works-what-it-means-for-mariners

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