Tanking to the Top?
In class, numerous clips described the phenomenon of average NBA teams who, unable to make the playoffs, decided to trade off good players and "tank" to the bottom. Their motive? To gain a high position in the following year's draft and draft a superstar player who could turn their losing record around and make the team a champion. However, Akira Motomura, an economics professor, says tanking to the top and building a team from a draft isn't really helpful for improving the overall trajectory of a team.
The reason for this is that even if a team has the worst record in the entire NBA season that year, they still have a chance of not getting the top pick. The draft is set up so each team ranked between the worst 1-4 each have proportionally higher chances of being first pick, but the worst 1 team still has a chance of picking say, fourth. And this is bad because studies have shown that while the number 1 pick of a draft season may be a superstar, the difference in success between the remaining first picks and the second picks are surprisingly low.
For example, in 2011, Cleveland Cavaliers had the first choice and took Kyrie Irving, who went on to become NBA Rookie of the Year. However, second pick Derrick Williams who was chosen by the Minnesota Timberwolves has only had double-figures in average scoring during one season, and "is currently holding on to his N.B.A. career by his fingertips".
In fact, Motomura states that it's better for a team to improve overall by training better players and becoming a better organization than to tank to the top. Evidenced by the same 2011 draft, teams who were better overall tended to do better despite not getting early picks. The Golden State Warriors had the 11th pick, and they chose Klay Thompson. The Indiana Pacers drafted Kawhi Leonard with the 15th pick, who would become one of the league’s top five players.
It's interesting how the draft is set up to ensure fairness so that the worst teams have a chance of doing better the next season with better players. However, the system allows for teams to take chances on getting a good pick by purposely doing bad, which ruins the fun and competitiveness of the sport. At least now, the incentive is lower due to the worst 4 teams vying for top pick, unlike the past where the worst 2 teams were given the first pick through a coin flip.
Sources: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/20/sports/nba-draft-tanking.html
https://www.nba.com/nba-draft-lottery-explainer
The reason for this is that even if a team has the worst record in the entire NBA season that year, they still have a chance of not getting the top pick. The draft is set up so each team ranked between the worst 1-4 each have proportionally higher chances of being first pick, but the worst 1 team still has a chance of picking say, fourth. And this is bad because studies have shown that while the number 1 pick of a draft season may be a superstar, the difference in success between the remaining first picks and the second picks are surprisingly low.
For example, in 2011, Cleveland Cavaliers had the first choice and took Kyrie Irving, who went on to become NBA Rookie of the Year. However, second pick Derrick Williams who was chosen by the Minnesota Timberwolves has only had double-figures in average scoring during one season, and "is currently holding on to his N.B.A. career by his fingertips".
In fact, Motomura states that it's better for a team to improve overall by training better players and becoming a better organization than to tank to the top. Evidenced by the same 2011 draft, teams who were better overall tended to do better despite not getting early picks. The Golden State Warriors had the 11th pick, and they chose Klay Thompson. The Indiana Pacers drafted Kawhi Leonard with the 15th pick, who would become one of the league’s top five players.
It's interesting how the draft is set up to ensure fairness so that the worst teams have a chance of doing better the next season with better players. However, the system allows for teams to take chances on getting a good pick by purposely doing bad, which ruins the fun and competitiveness of the sport. At least now, the incentive is lower due to the worst 4 teams vying for top pick, unlike the past where the worst 2 teams were given the first pick through a coin flip.
Sources: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/20/sports/nba-draft-tanking.html
https://www.nba.com/nba-draft-lottery-explainer
Comments
Post a Comment