The Tragedy of the Commons
The tragedy of the commons, commonly believed to be originated from Irish sheep farmers, is a basic example of the prisoner's dilemma we are studying in class. The prisoner's dilemma in simplified terms is essentially where each individual has an individual incentive to defect or not cooperate for the general good. As a result, the outcome is mutual defection because it is individually rational for each party, but collectively suboptimal. This is rather arbitrary and general, so we will look to the example of farmers allowing sheep to graze.
In the case of two farmers competing for grazing land, it is both parties best interest to use the land fully before the point where the soil becomes unusable. Both farmers would hypothetically maximize gain from the land if they were to hold back from overgrazing to prevent desertification, soil erosion, and invasive weeds. If both parties were to cooperate and play fairly, there would be evenly distributed profits hypothetically indefinitely. However, if either parties defect and overgraze, they would maximize their profit but eliminate the possibility to profit in the future.
The prisoner's dilemma tells us that while it is optimal in the long run for both farmers to hold back from overgrazing, there is a dominant strategy to defect because it is uncertain as to what the other person will do. As a result, each herder would find it economically rational to continue adding animals to graze, which ultimately destroys the pasture. In the end, the pursuit of individual self-interest leads to a collectively bad outcome.
In our modern world today, this same tragedy of the commons phenomenon can be seen with overpopulation, overfishing, deforestation, and air pollution. Each party wants to maximize their own gain so they will over utilize the resource at the expense of others. Collectively, this worsens the experience for everyone. However with the same logic of the prisoner's dilemma, preventing this issue would involve increasing the costs of defecting.
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Interesting article! The tragedy of the commons is a good example of game theory, in which a dominant strategy for an individual may not be the best outcome possible. Another example with a similar application is that of antibiotics. While antibiotics are useful in resisting microbes, overuse can cause it to be ineffective as microbes develop a resistance to it. For humans, the dominant strategy is to stock up on antibiotics, as that option brings them the greatest benefit, and it is unsure as to what everyone else will do. However, if everyone does this, antibiotics become less effective for everyone, and people will potentially curable diseases may not be able to be cured.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.news.gatech.edu/2016/11/09/game-theory-shows-how-tragedies-commons-might-be-averted
The way you explained the concept was really effective Andrew! I really like how in the end of your post, you managed to tie the prisoner effect to the condition of our world today. I also liked how you phrased both farmers progress by stating what would happen in both the long and short run.
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